North Carolina is the 24th most Republican state, voting 3.90% more Republican than the country as a whole.
Based on election data since 2000, North Carolina is trending Democratic.
More information on past presidential, congressional, and state elections can be found on the North Carolina page.
My party abbreviation guide is here.
President
North Carolina has been on the board of competitive states since 2008, and its Partisan Voting Index has trended leftward from R+7 in 2000 to R+3 in 2016. Growth and leftward trends in Charlotte and the Research Triangle (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill) moved the state into the list of competitive states. However, working class and rural areas are not quite maxed out for Republicans, so it looks like another close Republican win will occur here.
Outlook: Tilt Trump (15 electoral votes)
Congress
U.S. Senate (Class 2)
Thom Tillis (R-inc) vs. Cal Cunningham (D), Kevin E. Hayes (C), Shannon Bray (L)
Tillis has an advantage of being a Republican Senator in a Republican-leaning state, though didn’t have a particularly strong performance in the very pro-Republican year of 2014. Cunningham is a veteran and former state senator, though he was last seen losing the U.S. Senate primary in 2010 and has been out of office for a while. For now, Tillis has the advantage.
Outlook: Lean Tillis (Republican hold)
U.S. Senate (Class 3)
Richard Burr (R) is up for re-election in 2022.
U.S. House
Competitive Districts
District 2: Alan Swain (R) vs. Deborah Ross (D), Jeff Matemu (L)
Outlook: Lean Ross (Democratic gain)
District 6: Joseph “Lee” Haywood (R) vs. Kathy Manning (D)
Outlook: Lean Manning (Democratic gain)
District 8: Richard Hudson (R-inc) vs. Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D)
Outlook: Lean Hudson (Republican hold)
Other Districts
District 1: G.K. Butterfield (D-inc) vs. Sandy Smith (R)
District 3: Greg Murphy (R-inc) vs. Daryl Farrow (D)
District 4: David Price (D-inc) vs. Robert Thomas (R)
District 5: Virginia Foxx (R-inc) vs. David Brown (D), Jeff Gregory (C)
District 7: David Rouzer (R-inc) vs. Christopher Ward (D), Theresa Everett (I-W/I)
District 9: Dan Bishop (R-inc) vs. Cynthia Wallace (D)
District 10: Patrick McHenry (R-inc) vs. David Parker (D)
District 11: Madison Cawthorn (R) vs. Morris “Moe” Davis (D), Tamara Zwinak (G), Tracey DeBruhl (L)
District 12: Alma Adams (D-inc) vs. Billy Brewster, Jr. (R)
District 13: Ted Budd (R-inc) vs. Jeffrey “Scott” Huffman (D)
State Elections
Governor
Roy Cooper (D-inc) vs. Dan Forest (R), Al Pisano (C), Steven DiFiore II (L)
Cooper has been popular even without major accomplishments, while Forest has been outspoken on conservative issues and worked with the legislature on cultural issues. Polls have shown Cooper in the lead, though North Carolina’s light red political leanings mean Forest is still in contention, having won two hard-fought races for Lieutenant Governor.
Outlook: Likely Cooper (Democratic hold)
State Legislature
| Chamber | Control | GOP | DEM | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | ||||
| House |