My party abbreviation guide is here.
Alaska is the 22nd most Republican state, voting 6.01% more Republican than the nation as a whole.
Based on election data since 2000, Alaska is trending Democratic (16.95% more Democratic than 2000).
The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Alaska is R+8.52.
U.S. Senate (Class 2)
Dan Sullivan (R) is up for re-election in 2026.
U.S. Senate (Class 3)
Lisa Murkowski (R-inc) vs. Edgar Blatchford (D), Pat Chesbro (D), Dave Darden (I), Dustin Darden (IND) Shoshana Gungurstein (I), Sid Hill (I), Jeremy Keller (I), Buzz Kelley (R), Huhnkie Lee (I), Sam Little (R), Sam Merrill (R), Pat Nolin (R), John Schiess (R), Kendall L. Shorkey (R), Karl Speights (R), Joe Stephens (IND), Ivan R. Taylor (D), Sean Thorne (L), Kelly Tshibaka (R)
Top 4
Lisa Murkowski (R-inc) vs. Kelly Tshibaka (R), Pat Chesbro (D), Pat Nolin (R)
Analysis: With Alaska’s adoption of a top-four jungle primary system in 2020, the race will remain Republican whether Murkowski or Tshibaka wins (though that may change if Murkowski switches to Independent. Even if she does switch, Murkowski is likely to caucus with Republicans.
Outlook: Republican hold
U.S. House (Special)
(Don Young (R) died in office.)
Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich (R), Al Gross (withdrew) (I), Mary Peltola (D), Tara Sweeney (R), Santa Claus (I), Christopher Constant (D), Jeff Lowenfels (I), John Coghill (R), Josh Revak (R), Andrew Halcro (I), Adam Wool (D), Emil Notti (D), Chris Bye (L), Mike Milligan (D), John Howe (IND), Laurel Foster (I), Stephen Wright (R), Jay Armstrong (R), J. R. Myers (L), Gregg Brelsford (I), Ernest Thomas (D), Bob Lyons (R), Otto Florschutz (R), Maxwell Sumner (R), Clayton Trotter (R), Anne McCabe (I), John Callahan (R), Arlene Carle (I), Tim Beck (I), Sherry Mettler (I), Tom Gibbons (R), Lady Donna Dutchess (I), Robert Ornelas (AI), Ted Heintz (I), Silvio Pellegrini (I), Karyn Griffin (I), David Hughes (I), Don Knight (I), Jo Woodward (R), Jason Williams (I), Robert Brown (I), Dennis Aguayo (I), William Hibler III (I), Bradley Welter (R), David Thistle (I), Brian Beal (I), Mikel Melander (R)
Top “4”
Mary Peltola (D-inc) vs. Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich III (R), write-ins
Outlook: Toss-Up
U.S. House
Mary Peltola (D), Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich III (R), Tara Sweeney (R-W/D), Chris Bye (L), J. R. Myers (L), Bob Lyons (R), Jay Armstrong (R), Brad Snowden (R), Randy Purham (R), Lady Donna Dutchess (I), Sherry Strizak (I), Robert Ornelas (AI), Denise Williams (R), Gregg Brelsford (I), David Hughes (I), Andrew Phelps (I), Tremayne Wilson (I), Sherry Mettler (I), Silvio Pellegrini (I), Ted Heintz (I), Davis LeBlanc (I)
Top 4
Mary Peltola (D-inc) vs. Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich III (R), Chris Bye (L)
Analysis: Peltola won the first round of the special election to succeed the late Don Young (R) and will serve a partial term as the first Democrat in 50 years to win Alaska’s House seat. She is seeking election to a full term.
Outlook: Toss-Up
State Elections
Governor
Mike Dunleavy (R-inc) vs. Les Gara (D), David Haeg (R), John Howe (IND), Christopher Kurka (R), William Nemec (I), Charlie Pierce (R), William S. Toien (L), Bruce Walden (R), Bill Walker (I)
Top 4
Mike Dunleavy (R-inc) vs. Les Gara (D), Bill Walker (I), Charlie Pierce (R)
Outlook: Strong Dunleavy (Republican hold)
State Legislature
| Chamber | Control | GOP | DEM | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | ||||
| House |
Like the summary.
Why do you think Ak is trending more Dem since 2000?
When coming up with the trends, I decided for now to compare each state’s margin relative to the overall national margins in the 2000 and 2020 elections. I decided on an arbitrary cutoff between steady (less than 2% either way) and trending Democratic or Republican.
This is what I will use for now until I can come up with a better way to calculate the trends.