I recently started a new job and didn’t have time to update my predictions using data science, so I will go by my August predictions and see how they compared to the actual results. Sometime next year I will look into the races in more detail.
Senate
Alabama: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Alaska: My prediction: GOP Hold – Actual result: GOP Hold (Murkowski over Tshibaka 53.70% – 46.30%)
Arizona: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Lean DEM
Arkansas: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
California: My prediction: Solid DEM – Actual result: Solid DEM (both special and general)
Colorado: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Connecticut: My prediction: Strong DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Florida: My prediction: Strong GOP – Actual result: Strong GOP
Georgia: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Hawaii: My prediction: Solid DEM – Actual result: Solid DEM
Idaho: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Illinois: My prediction: Strong DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Indiana: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Iowa: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Strong GOP
Kansas: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Kentucky: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Louisiana: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Maryland: My prediction: Solid DEM – Actual result: Solid DEM
Missouri: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Strong GOP
Nevada: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt DEM
New Hampshire: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Lean DEM
New York: My prediction: Solid DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
North Carolina: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Tilt GOP
North Dakota: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Ohio: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Lean GOP
Oklahoma (special): My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Oklahoma: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Oregon: My prediction: Solid DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Pennsylvania: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt DEM (gain)
South Carolina: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
South Dakota: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Utah: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Strong GOP
Vermont: My prediction: Solid DEM – Actual result: Solid DEM
Washington: My prediction: Strong DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Wisconsin: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Tilt GOP
House
Alaska At Large: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Strong DEM
Arizona District 1: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Tilt GOP
Arizona District 2: My prediction: Lean GOP (gain) – Actual result: Lean GOP (gain)
Arizona District 4: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Arizona District 6: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Tilt GOP
California District 9: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Lean DEM
California District 13: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt GOP (gain)
California District 22: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Tilt GOP
California District 27: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Lean GOP
California District 41: My prediction: None – Actual result: Tilt GOP
California District 45: My prediction: None – Actual result: Tilt GOP
California District 47: My prediction: None – Actual result: Tilt DEM
California District 49: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Lean DEM
Colorado District 3: My prediction: None – Actual result: Tilt GOP
Colorado District 7: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Colorado District 8: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Tilt DEM (gain of new district)
Connecticut District 5: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Florida District 13: My prediction: Strong GOP – Actual result: Lean GOP
Florida District 23: My prediction: None – Actual result: Lean DEM
Illinois District 6: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Lean DEM
Illinois District 13: My prediction: Lean DEM (gain) – Actual result: Strong DEM (gain)
Illinois District 14: My prediction: Strong DEM – Actual result: Lean DEM
Illinois District 17: My prediction: Lean GOP (gain) – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Indiana District 1: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Lean DEM
Iowa District 3: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt GOP (gain)
Kansas District 3: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Strong DEM
Maine District 2: My prediction: Lean GOP (gain) – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Maryland District 6: My prediction: Strong DEM – Actual result: Lean DEM
Massachusetts District 9: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Michigan District 3: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Strong DEM
Michigan District 7: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Lean DEM
Michigan District 8: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Strong DEM
Michigan District 10: My prediction: Strong GOP – Actual result: Tilt GOP
Minnesota District 2: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Lean DFL
Montana District 1: My prediction: None – Actual result: Tilt GOP
Nebraska District 2: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Tilt GOP
Nevada District 1: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Lean DEM
Nevada District 3: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Nevada District 4: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt DEM
New Hampshire District 1: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Lean DEM
New Hampshire District 2: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
New Jersey District 7: My prediction: Lean GOP (gain) – Actual result: Tilt GOP (gain)
New Mexico District 2: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Tilt DEM (gain)
New York District 1: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Strong GOP
New York District 3: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Lean GOP (gain)
New York District 4: My prediction: None – Actual result: Tilt GOP (gain)
New York District 17: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Tilt GOP (gain)
New York District 18: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt DEM
New York District 19: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt GOP (gain)
New York District 22: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt GOP
North Carolina District 1: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Tilt DEM
North Carolina District 13: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Tilt DEM (gain)
North Carolina District 14: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM (gain of new district)
Ohio District 1: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Lean DEM (gain)
Ohio District 9: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Strong DEM
Ohio District 13: My prediction: Lean GOP (gain) – Actual result: Lean DEM
Oregon District 4: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Lean DEM
Oregon District 5: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt GOP (gain)
Oregon District 6: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Pennsylvania District 7: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Pennsylvania District 8: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Pennsylvania District 17: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Lean DEM
Rhode Island District 2: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Tennessee District 5: My prediction: Strong GOP (gain) – Actual result: Strong GOP (gain)
Texas District 15: My prediction: Lean GOP (gain) – Actual result: Lean GOP (gain)
Texas District 28: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Texas District 34: My prediction: Lean DEM (gain) – Actual result: Lean DEM (gain)
Virginia District 2: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt GOP (gain)
Virginia District 7: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Virginia District 10: My prediction: None – Actual result: Lean DEM
Washington District 3: My prediction: None – Actual result: Tilt DEM (gain)
Wisconsin District 3: My prediction: Lean GOP (gain) – Actual result: Tilt GOP (gain)
Governors
Alabama: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Alaska: My prediction: Strong GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Arizona: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt DEM (gain)
Arkansas: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
California: My prediction: Solid DEM – Actual result: Solid DEM
Colorado: My prediction: Strong DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Connecticut: My prediction: Strong DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Florida: My prediction: Strong GOP – Actual result: Strong GOP
Georgia: My prediction: Lean GOP – Actual result: Lean GOP
Hawaii: My prediction: Solid DEM – Actual result: Solid DEM
Idaho: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Illinois: My prediction: Strong DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Iowa: My prediction: Strong GOP – Actual result: Strong GOP
Kansas: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Maine: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Maryland: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Solid DEM (gain)
Massachusetts: My prediction: Strong DEM – Actual result: Solid DEM (gain)
Michigan: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Minnesota: My prediction: Lean DFL – Actual result: Lean DFL
Nebraska: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Nevada: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt GOP (gain)
New Hampshire: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Strong GOP
New Mexico: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Lean DEM
New York: My prediction: Strong DEM – Actual result: Lean DEM
Ohio: My prediction: Strong GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Oklahoma: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Strong GOP
Oregon: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Lean DEM
Pennsylvania: My prediction: Lean DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
Rhode Island: My prediction: Strong DEM – Actual result: Strong DEM
South Carolina: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Strong GOP
South Dakota: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Tennessee: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Texas: My prediction: Strong GOP – Actual result: Strong GOP
Vermont: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP
Wisconsin: My prediction: Toss-Up – Actual result: Tilt DEM
Wyoming: My prediction: Solid GOP – Actual result: Solid GOP