Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – New Jersey

Flag of New Jersey
Flag of New Jersey

My party abbreviation guide is here.

New Jersey is the 12th most Democratic state, voting 6.06% more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, New Jersey is trending Republican (3.89% more Republican than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for New Jersey is D+5.99.

U.S. Senate (Class 1)

Bob Menendez (D) is up for re-election in 2024.

U.S. Senate (Class 2)

Cory Booker (D) is up for re-election in 2026.

U.S. House

District 1

Donald Norcross (D-inc) vs. Claire Gustafson (R), Isaiah Fletcher (L), Allen Cannon (I), Patricia Kline (I)

District 2

Jeff Van Drew (R-inc) vs. Tim Alexander (D), Michael Gall (L), Anthony Parisi Sanchez (I)

District 3

Andy Kim (D-inc) vs. Bob Healey (R), Christopher Russomanno (L), Lawrence Hatez (I), Gregory Sobocinski (I)

District 4

Chris Smith (R-inc) vs. Matthew Jenkins (D), Jason Cullen (L), Pam Daniels (I), David Schmidt (I), Hank Schroeder (I)

District 5

Josh Gottheimer (D-inc) vs. Frank Pallotta (R), Jeremy Marcus (L), David Abrams (I), James Ferrigno (I), Louis Vellucci (I)

District 6

Frank Pallone (D-inc) vs. Sue Kiley (R), Tara Fisher (L), Eric Antisell (I), Inder Jit Soni (I)

District 7

Tom Malinowski (D-inc) vs. Tom Kean, Jr. (R), Clayton Pajunas (L), Veronica Fernandez (I)

Analysis: Malinowski is facing a rematch against Kean, son of popular former governor Tom Kean, Sr., in a more Republican district after narrowly winning in 2020. This suburban district shifted Democratic in the Trump years but has likely soured on Joe Biden and Democrats in general. An ethics investigation likely won’t do Malinowski any favors either.

Outlook: Lean Kean (Republican gain)

District 8

Robert Menendez (D-inc) vs. Marcos Arroyo (R), Dan Delaney (L), Joanne Kuniansky (SW), David Cook (I), Pablo Olivera (I), John Salierno (I)

(Albio Sires (D) is retiring.)

District 9

Bill Pascrell (D-inc) vs. Billy Prempeh (R), Sean Armstrong (L), Lea Sherman (SW)

District 10

Donald Payne, Jr. (D-inc) vs. David Pinckney (R), Kendal Ludden (L), Clenard J. Childress, Jr. (I), Dorothy Jane Humphries (I), Cynthia Johnson (I)

District 11

Mikie Sherrill (D-inc) vs. Paul DeGroot (R), Joseph Biasco (L)

District 12

Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-inc) vs. Darius Mayfield (R), Lynn Genrich (L)

State Elections

Governor

Phil Murphy (D) is term-limited in 2025.

State Legislature

Chamber Control DEM GOP Others
Senate
DEM
24
16
House
DEM
46
33
1 vacant