Here in the 2020 post-mortem, the election featured plenty of races whose results were expected, and quite a few whose results were not expected. Let me delve into the results from each state.
Alabama
The elections here went according to predictions, including Jones losing by the biggest margin for a Democratic incumbent Senator since Blanche Lincoln in 2010.
Alaska
There was buzz about the 3 biggest races, President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House, all being competitive as Alaska’s red hue has lightened in recent years, but all 3 Republicans running in these races won by comfortable margins.
Arizona
This was one of the states in which I underestimated the Democratic trends. While I expected Kelly to win the Senate special, I also predicted Trump would again win by a slim margin. I thought Fox’s call of Arizona for Biden in the wee hours of November 4 was premature, but it turned out to be right as Arizona went for Biden by 0.3%. Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and more than 60% of the state’s population, went Democratic for the first time since 1948 when the state’s demographics were very different. With Kelly’s close win in the Senate race, Arizona has indeed followed Virginia in flipping both Senate seats from Republican to Democratic in two consecutive elections.
Arkansas
The last Democratic holdout in the South, having two Democratic U.S. Senators as recently as 2010 before those elections, Arkansas has solidified its status as a Republican stronghold. Cotton had no Democratic opponent in 2020, though the Libertarian candidate Harrington received over 30% of the vote and won a few counties. The 2nd congressional district in the Little Rock area was expected to be competitive, but Hill won by double digits.
California
As expected in the 2020 post-mortem, Biden won my home state big, though not as big as Hillary Clinton did 4 years ago. California went Democratic by 31% in 2016 and 29% in 2020. The big reservoir of Democratic votes, Los Angeles County, went for Biden by 44% after going for Hillary by 50%. However, Biden won normally Republican Inyo County by 14 votes, after Inyo went Republican by double digits in every election since 1964, save 2008 (and even then, McCain won by 9). Republicans also gained back some of the House seats they lost in 2018, getting out of single digits with wins in the districts I expected. I thought the 48th district was the likeliest to flip back, with its R+4 PVI and without an opponent with major baggage. The 39th was also a possible flip because of the odd circumstances in the first round in June 2018, and with the district being home to Richard Nixon’s hometown of Yorba Linda. The 21st I originally thought would be an uphill battle for Republicans because of it going Democratic presidentially by double digits, but with Valadao running to reclaim the district and with Cox’s scandals, this district to me would be the next likeliest to flip. I originally didn’t think the 25th district would flip until Hill resigned. After Garcia’s larger-than-expected win, I suspected he was a good fit for the district but would still face a very competitive race with Biden likely to win the district by double digits, and both of those predictions panned out.
Colorado
I expected Colorado to go Democratic both presidentially and in the Senate race, and those predictions panned out, especially with Biden’s double-digit win.
Connecticut
Not much excitement here. Biden and all 5 Democratic representatives easily won.
Delaware
With their former long-serving Senator leading the ticket, all the major races in Delaware went Democratic by considerable margins as well.
Florida
While many expected Florida to be highly competitive again, the state gave Trump a majority of the vote, the first time it voted majority-Republican for president since 2004. I expected Florida to be a little more Republican than 2016 with Cubans returning to the Republican fold and not many other demographics in which Biden improved over Clinton. The two House races in South Florida that flipped Democratic in 2018 also flipped back Republican.
Georgia
Here’s the other state in which Democrats outperformed my expectations. I expected Georgia to again lean Republican in the presidential and both U.S. Senate races. (The Class III seat was up in a special after Johnny Isakson (R) resigned because of health issues.) The suburbs north of Atlanta have been seeing a significant influx of college educated and nonwhite voters, which have made Georgia buck the trend of the Deep South. Democratic wins in these races were possible, and they went 3-for-3, going for Biden in November and Ossoff and Warnock in early January. So, in the 2020 post-mortem, Georgia beat even Arizona, flipping both Senate seats from Republican to Democratic in the same election, the reverse of what Tennessee did in 1994. The 7th district, which narrowly stayed Republican in 2018 while the neighboring 6th flipped to the Democrats, joined its neighbor in the Democratic column.
Hawaii
Not much to see in this Democratic stronghold either.
Idaho
Nor in this Republican stronghold.
Illinois
Illinois went strongly Democratic again, though by about the same as 2016 with Democratic trends in Chicagoland and Republican trends in most of the rest of the state.
Indiana
Indiana went strongly Republican again, though a little less than in 2016. The suburbs around Indianapolis have seen a Democratic trend, with Hamilton County going Republican only by single digits and the competitive 5th district going Republican also by single digits.
Iowa
Iowa continued its Republican trend in the 2020 post-mortem, going Republican presidentially by a relatively comfortable margin. The Senate race was also expected to be competitive, but Ernst won by 6 points. The House races in Democratic seats were all highly competitive. The 1st flipped back to the Republicans, the 3rd stayed Democratic by only 1%, and the 2nd was almost evenly divided. The Republican, Miller-Meeks, was provisionally seated while that election in which she is ahead by 6 votes is sorted out.
Kansas
This longtime Republican stronghold largely stayed that way, though Kansas actually voted less Republican than neighboring Missouri, where Democrats in the past often won.
Kentucky
Kentucky continued to trend Republican, giving big wins to Trump and McConnell.
Louisiana
Louisiana continues to be strongly Republican outside of New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Shreveport, and the majority-black rural parishes.
Maine
I expected Maine to split its electoral votes again, and that happened as the rural 2nd district went for Trump by a comfortable margin. However, this was one of the few districts to vote Republican presidentially and Democratic congressionally.
Maryland
Not much to see here in the 2020 post-mortem. Maryland was one of Biden’s best states.
Massachusetts
Another one of the less interesting states, with big wins for Democrats all across the board.
Michigan
Having flipped Republican in 2016 after going Democratic for president from 1992 to 2012, Michigan was again a top target. In addition to the presidential race, the Senate seat that had last gone for a Republican in 1972 was also up and was highly contested. Republican John James, who held Stabenow to a narrower-than-expected win in 2018, was running again. This time James ran against the low-profile Gary Peters, a rare Democratic victor in a competitive race in 2014. For this election, Michigan returned to the Democratic fold, with narrow wins for Biden and Peters. Some House races were also highly contested, but they all remained with the same party as the candidates elected in 2018. (I say this because Justin Amash in the 3rd and Paul Mitchell in the 10th had become a Libertarian and an Independent respectively and retired, and Republicans won both those seats. The two new Democrats elected in 2018 were re-elected.)
Minnesota
With 2016’s super-close call, Minnesota’s streak of voting for Democratic presidential candidates since 1976 was thought to finally be snapped. That didn’t happen though, as Biden won by a relatively comfortable 7-point margin. Tina Smith in the Senate race had a slightly smaller win. The last Democratic representative in a heavily Republican district, Collin Peterson in the agriculture-heavy 7th, finally lost after serving 15 terms and facing smaller margins in recent elections.
Mississippi
Not much to see here either in this strongly Republican state that is one of the most inelastic.
Missouri
Missouri again went Republican for president by a solid margin, a far cry from its former bellwether status 20 years ago and by a greater margin than neighboring Kansas in the 2020 post-mortem. The governor race went Republican by a solid margin as well.
Montana
Montana went strongly Republican for president as it has in some recent elections. Democrats were more competitive down-ballot in the past, but this time the Senate, House, and Governor races all went Republican by double digits.
Nebraska
Mostly nothing to see here either, though Nebraska did what it did in 2008 and split its electoral votes, giving one to Joe Biden. This electoral vote came from the highly urban, college-educated 2nd district in Omaha. The 2nd district is one of a shrinking number of districts that voted differently for President and U.S. House, as Republican Don Bacon prevailed by a narrow margin.
Nevada
Nevada continued its status as a light blue state as Joe Biden won by 3 points, and the two highly contested districts in the Las Vegas area narrowly went for the Democratic incumbents.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire voted like a blue state at the federal level, with wins for Biden, Shaheen in the Senate race, and Pappas and Kuster in the House races. However, New Hampshire voted more Republican down-ballot, giving Chris Sununu another term as governor and Republicans control of the state legislature.
New Jersey
New Jersey easily went for Biden and Senator Booker in the 2020 post-mortem, though the House districts showed some competitive races even as none flipped. Democrats won all but one district in 2018, but their count there went from 11 to 10 when Jeff Van Drew switched parties.
New Mexico
New Mexico did go Democratic again, with Biden winning by double digits. However, the Senate race went Democratic by much less, 5%, and the 2nd congressional district, the most conservative in the state, flipped back to the Republicans.
New York
New York again went heavily Democratic for president, though lost the Staten Island-based House district 11 and pending review, the 22nd district upstate. NY-22 normally is a Republican district, but Tenney is an underperformer and currently leads by 29 votes. Also, some veteran Democratic representatives were succeeded younger, more liberal candidates.
North Carolina
North Carolina was again expected to be competitive, on the presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial tickets. As a southern state that has been competitive in recent elections, North Carolina was often compared with Georgia. However, North Carolina Democrats haven’t hit bottom in rural areas yet, and there isn’t as big an upscale/college-educated suburban base in Charlotte or Research Triangle Park, so I expected North Carolina to at least stay Republican for president. In my predictions, I saw both the Senate and Governor races going to the Democrats. I was right on the latter but missed the former. In the House races, most of the action was in the two new Democratic districts redrawn by court order. The rest of the districts stayed with the same parties.
North Dakota
Another one of the uninteresting states. Big Republican wins in the presidential, House, and gubernatorial races.
Ohio
Like Iowa, Ohio is a formerly competitive state that has become more and more Republican, as shown in the 2020 post-mortem. Trump won by 8 points and none of the House districts flipped.
Oklahoma
Hardly a disappointing state for Republicans here, turning in one of the biggest margins for Trump and flipping back the Oklahoma City-based 5th district, that went Democratic in an upset in 2018.
Oregon
Oregon showed its Left Coast nature again, going for Biden and Merkley by nearly identical double-digit margins. None of the House districts flipped, though there was buzz about the marginal 4th district being competitive without the college votes from the University of Oregon (Eugene in Lane County, where half of the district’s population lives) and Oregon State (Corvallis in Benton County). Former Army National Guard soldier Alek Skarlatos, who in 2015 helped thwart an attack on a train en route from Amsterdam to Paris, put up a strong challenge. DeFazio won an 18th term, but by his closest margin ever.
Pennsylvania
As another one of the states narrowly won by Trump after going Democratic from 1992 to 2012 and with a bunch of competitive districts, Pennsylvania was again highly contested. Like Michigan, Pennsylvania returned to the blue column, giving “Scranton Joe” Biden enough electoral votes to pass 270 in November. None of the House races flipped.
Rhode Island
Another one of the less interesting blue states with a big win for Biden, an even bigger win for Reed in the Senate race, and Democratic holds in both House districts.
South Carolina
Being surrounded by competitive states, South Carolina was talked about as being competitive in the presidential and Senate races, and the 1st congressional district that, like Oklahoma’s 5th, surprisingly went Democratic in 2018. However, both Trump and Graham still won by low double-digits. The only federal race in South Carolina that flipped in the 2020 post-mortem was…the 1st congressional district.
South Dakota
Like its neighbors to the north, south, and west, South Dakota was another uninteresting state with big wins for Republicans.
Tennessee
I’m beginning to feel like a broken record here, but again, here is another uninterested state with big Republican wins in the presidential and Senate races, and all 9 representatives winning by big margins including 2 open seats in East Tennessee.
Texas
After George W. Bush was termed out a lot of talk rose about Texas being competitive because of a growing nonwhite population and more competitive suburbs, including districts in the Houston and Dallas areas that voted for Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred respectively, while Texas overall voted for Cruz by only 3%. A wave of retirements of other Republicans in other competitive seats, and another incumbent Republican facing a competitive race led Democrats to believe that they were poised for a lot of gains. However, the bulk of the gains occurred in the suburbs in the presidential race. Biden won Tarrant County (Fort Worth) and Hays and Williamson Counties (suburban Austin), and lost Denton and Collin Counties by single digits after those two gave Bush more than 70% of the vote in 2004. Cornyn won by a significantly greater margin than Cruz, and none of the House districts flipped. In fact, some of the border counties saw massive Republican swings. So it seems that a purple Texas, let alone a blue Texas, is still at least 2 or 3 cycles away.
Utah
Among the states Trump won by large margins, my current state of residence actually has the most to talk about. Historically, Utah was one of the best states for Republican presidential candidates with the large socially conservative Mormon voting bloc, and with most of the moderates being Republicans. However, 2016 considerably shook things up here, with Trump not seen very well by many Mormons, and a conservative Mormon third party candidate talking about a third of the Republican vote. Even with McMullin on the ticket, however, Trump won with a plurality. This time, McMullin endorsed Biden and Biden won Salt Lake County by double digits. Grand County (Moab, Arches, Canyonlands), after Trump won by 15 votes in 2016, went for Biden by 10%.
Vermont
Biden’s best state in the 2020 post-mortem. Enough said.
Virginia
Like Colorado, Virginia was a red state at the turn of the millennium that was trending left and the trends manifested in more recent years with the growth of left-trending areas in Northern Virginia, Richmond, and the Tidewater area. Biden won by double digits, and won Virginia Beach, which before had not gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. After a scare in 2014, Mark Warner in the Senate race also won by double digits, doing slightly better than Biden. None of the House districts flipped, though freshman Democrats Luria and Spanberger had very close re-elections. In the 5th district, which includes Charlottesville, controversial Republican nominee Bob Good won by 5.
Washington
The growth and leftward trend of the Seattle area continued to solidify Washington’s status as a blue state. Democrat Jay Inslee also won by double digits in his bid for a third term as governor.
West Virginia
West Virginia’s rapid Republican trend continued, with big wins for Trump, Capito, Justice, and the representatives.
Wisconsin
Here is the other state that went for Trump in 2016 after going Democratic from 1992 to 2012. Wisconsin seemed the least likely of these three to flip back to the Democrats because although heavily Democratic college and state capital-based Dane County is growing fast, the suburban counties around Milwaukee are significantly more Republican than the suburban counties near Detroit and Philadelphia. Wisconsin also returned to the Democratic fold, though by less than Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Wyoming
This 2020 post-mortem concludes with Trump’s best state, that also went big for former Representative Lummis for Senate and Liz Cheney for House.
Bonus
Now that I am done with the 2020 post-mortem, I decided to throw in a bonus analysis: what proportion of the population lives in competitive states (decided by less than 5%), semi-competitive states (5-9.99%), and non-competitive states (10% or more). Population figures are from the July 2020 estimate.
Population of competitive states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin):
7,421,401 + 21,733,312 + 10,710,017 + 9,966,555 + 3,138,259 + 10,600,823 + 12,783,254 + 5,832,655 = 82,186,276 (24.94%)
Population of states 5-10% (Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Texas):
3,163,561 + 1,350,141 + 5,657,342 + 1,366,275 + 11,693,217 + 29,360,759 = 52,591,295 (15.96%)
Population of states 10%+ president (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wyoming):
4,921,532 + 731,158 + 3,030,522 + 39,368,078 + 5,807,719 + 3,557,006 + 986,809 + 712,816 + 1,407,006 + 1,826,913 + 12,587,530 + 6,754,953 + 2,913,805 + 4,477,251 + 4,645,318 + 6,055,802 + 6,893,574 + 2,966,786 + 6,151,548 + 1,080,577 + 1,937,552 + 8,882,371 + 2,106,319 + 19,336,776 + 765,309 + 3,980,783 + 4,241,507 + 1,057,125 + 5,218,040 + 892,717 + 6,886,834 + 3,249,879 + 623,347 + 8,590,563 + 7,693,612 + 1,784,787 + 582,328 = 194,706,552 (59.09%)
From these numbers, almost a quarter of the population lives in states decided by less than 5%, another 16% live in semi-competitive states, so that means a majority, though still less than 60%, of the population lives in non-competitive states.