Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Minnesota

Flag of Minnesota
Flag of Minnesota

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Minnesota is the 19th most Democratic state, voting 1.13% more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Minnesota is steady (0.77% more Democratic than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Minnesota is D+0.54.

U.S. Senate (Class 1)

Amy Klobuchar (DFL) is up for re-election in 2024.

U.S. Senate (Class 2)

Tina Smith (DFL) is up for re-election in 2026.

U.S. House

District 1

Brad Finstad (R-inc) vs. Jeffrey Ettinger (DFL), Richard Reisdorf (LMN), Brian Abrahamson (GLC)

District 2

Angie Craig (DFL-inc) vs. Tyler Kistner (R), Paula Overby (LMN), Rick Olson (I)

Analysis: This is a fairly close district, with Dakota County leaning Democratic and Carver County leaning Republican. Kistner, who narrowly lost to Craig last time, is back for a rematch. Overby’s presence on the ballot, as well as the national environment, could complicate Craig’s chances of re-election.

Outlook: Toss-Up

District 3

Dean Phillips (DFL-inc) vs. Tom Weiler (R)

District 4

Betty McCollum (DFL-inc) vs. May Lor Xiong (R)

District 5

Ilhan Omar (DFL-inc) vs. Cicely Davis (R)

District 6

Tom Emmer (R-inc) vs. Jeanne Hendricks (DFL)

District 7

Michelle Fischbach (R-inc) vs. Jill Abahsain (DFL), Travis Johnson (LMN)

District 8

Pete Stauber (R-inc) vs. Jennifer Schultz (DFL)

State Elections

Governor

Tim Walz (DFL-inc) vs. Scott Jensen (R), Steve Patterson (Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis), James McCaskel (Legalize Marijuana Now), Gabrielle Prosser (SW), Hugh McTavish (IND)

Analysis: Walz is favored because of Minnesota’s voting tendencies, though the national environment and the third-party candidates on the ticket will likely make this race closer.

Outlook: Lean Walz (Democratic hold)

State Legislature

ChamberControlGOPDEMOthers
Senate
GOP
34
31
2 I
House
DEM
59
70
4 New GOP, 1 non-caucusing GOP, 1 I