Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Oregon

Flag of Oregon
Flag of Oregon

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Oregon is the 13th most Democratic state, voting 5.18% more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Oregon is trending Democratic (11.70% more Democratic than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Oregon is D+5.54.

U.S. Senate (Class 2)

Jeff Merkley (D) is up for re-election in 2026.

U.S. Senate (Class 3)

Ron Wyden (D-inc) vs. Jo Rae Perkins (R), John R. Newton (L), Thomas Verde (I)

Outlook: Solid Wyden (Democratic hold)

U.S. House

District 1

Suzanne Bonamici (D-inc) vs. Christopher A. Mann (R)

District 2

Cliff Bentz (R-inc) vs. Joseph Yetter (D)

District 3

Earl Blumenauer (D-inc) vs. Joanna Harbour (R)

District 4

Val Hoyle (D-inc) vs. Alek Skarlatos (R), Jim Howard (C)

Analysis: After a close call in 2020, Peter DeFazio (D) is retiring from this swingy district. Democratic strength is anchored in the college cities of Eugene and Corvallis, but issues with midterm turnout among young voters, in addition to Skarlatos seeking a rematch, make this district one to watch. The new 4th is slightly more Democratic than the old 4th though.

Outlook: Lean Hoyle (Democratic hold)

District 5

Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) vs. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)

Analysis: This seat is open after moderate Democrat Kurt Schrader lost the primary. The district is Democratic, but not strongly so with Portland’s southern suburbs and a small part of the city.

Outlook: Toss-Up

District 6 (new district)

Andrea Salinas (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R)

Analysis: Oregon gained a district after the 2020 Census. This district was made Democratic-leaning with Salem and some Portland suburbs.

Outlook: Lean Salinas (Democratic win)

State Elections

Governor

Kate Brown (D) is term-limited.

Tina Kotek (D) vs. Christine Drazan (R), Betsy Johnson (I)

Analysis: Oregon usually leans Democratic, but former Democrat Johnson could split the vote enough to allow Drazan to win. Outgoing governor Brown’s unpopularity likely won’t help Kotek either.

Outlook: Lean Kotek (Democratic hold)

State Legislature

Chamber Control DEM GOP Others
Senate
DEM
18
11
1 I
House
DEM
37
23