My party abbreviation guide is here.
Pennsylvania is the 22nd most Democratic state, voting 1.26% less Democratic than the nation as a whole.
Based on election data since 2000, Pennsylvania is trending Republican (6.93% more Republican than 2000).
The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Pennsylvania is R+1.58.
U.S. Senate (Class 1)
Bob Casey Jr. (D) is up for re-election in 2024.
U.S. Senate (Class 3)
Pat Toomey (R) is retiring.
Mehmet Oz (R) vs. John Fetterman (D), Erik Gerhardt (L), Richard L. Weiss (G), Dan Wassmer (Keystone)
Analysis: Pennsylvania has competitive races all the way up and down the ballot. Leading the ballot will be this key Senate race. Cardiologist and celebrity Doctor Oz could appeal to Democratic-voting Republicans in the Philadelphia area, while Lieutenant Governor Fetterman may have some working-class appeal in the Pittsburgh area, though he never had a working-class job. Both candidates have liabilities. Fetterman’s issues include his health (a stroke and having a pacemaker implanted), endorsing Bernie Sanders (which may appeal to the Democratic base but not so much more moderate voters), and allegedly following a black jogger with a gun. Oz’s potential liabilities include having been a New Jersey resident until very recently (though a lot of Pennsylvanians vacation at the Jersey Shore), and shopping for “crudités” (which Fetterman said Pennsylvanians call “veggie trays”).
Outlook: Toss-Up
U.S. House
District 1
Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc) vs. Ashley Ehasz (D), Caroline Avery
District 2
Brendan Boyle (D-inc) vs. Aaron Bashir (R)
District 3
Dwight Evans (D-inc) vs. Christopher Hoeppner (SW)
District 4
Madeleine Dean (D-inc) vs. Christian Nascimento (R)
District 5
Mary Gay Scanlon (D-inc) vs. David Galluch (R)
District 6
Chrissy Houlahan (D-inc) vs. Guy Ciarrocchi (R)
District 7
Susan Wild (D-inc) vs. Lisa Scheller (R)
Analysis: Redistricting made this district, based in the exurban Philadelphia Lehigh Valley, more Republican. Affluent voters helped Wild and Joe Biden win this district, but these voters are likely to sour on Democrats given the current economic conditions.
Outlook: Toss-Up
District 8
Matt Cartwright (D-inc) vs. Jim Bognet (R)
Analysis: This is another rare Donald Trump-House Democrat 2020 district, in northeastern Pennsylvania. It was made slightly more Democratic in redistricting, but the rightward trend among working-class voters makes this district no sure win for Cartwright.
Outlook: Toss-Up
District 9
Dan Meuser (R) vs. Amanda Waldman (D)
District 10
Scott Perry (R-inc) vs. Shamaine Daniels (D)
District 11
Lloyd Smucker (R-inc) vs. Robert Michael Hollister III (D)
District 12
Summer Lee (D) vs. Mike Doyle (R)
(Mike Doyle (D) is retiring.)
District 13
John Joyce (R-inc) vs. Mark Critz (D)
District 14
District 15
District 16
Mike Kelly (R-inc) vs. Dan Pastore (D)
District 17
Chris Deluzio (D) vs. Jeremy Shaffer (R)
Analysis: Conor Lamb (D) ran for U.S. Senate. This district includes the northern suburbs of Pittsburgh but will be a challenge for Deluzio to hold.
Outlook: Toss-Up
State Elections
Governor
Tom Wolf (D) is term-limited.
Josh Shapiro (D) vs. Doug Mastriano (R), Matt Hackenburg (L), Christina DiGuilio (G), Joe Soloski (Keystone)
Analysis: Like the Senate race, the governor race will also be highly competitive. Republicans have shown concern that Mastriano’s far-right views may put him at a disadvantage, though the political environment keeps him in contention.
Outlook: Lean Shapiro (Democratic hold)
State Legislature
| Chamber | Control | GOP | DEM | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | ||||
| House |