Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Texas

Flag of Texas
Flag of Texas

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Texas is the 23rd most Republican state, voting 5.24% more Republican than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Texas is trending Democratic (11.80% more Democratic than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Texas is R+5.46.

U.S. Senate (Class 1)

Ted Cruz (R) is up for re-election in 2024.

U.S. Senate (Class 2)

John Cornyn (R) is up for re-election in 2026.

U.S. House

District 1

Nathaniel Moran (R) vs. Jrmar Jefferson (D)

(Louie Gohmert (R) ran for Attorney General.)

District 2

Dan Crenshaw (R-inc) vs. Robin Fulford (D)

District 3

Keith Self (R) vs. Sandeep Srivastava (D), Christopher Claytor (L)

(Van Taylor (R) resigned.)

District 4

Pat Fallon (R-inc) vs. Iro Omere (D), John Simmons (L)

District 5

Lance Gooden (R-inc) vs. Tartisha Hill (D), Kevin Hale (L)

District 6

Jake Ellzey (R-inc)

District 7

Lizzie Fletcher (D-inc) vs. Johnny Teague (R)

District 8

Morgan Lutrell (R) vs. Laura Jones (D), Roy Eriksen (L)

(Kevin Brady (R) is retiring.)

District 9

Al Green (D) vs. Jimmy Leon (R)

District 10

Michael McCaul (R-inc) vs. Linda Nuno (D), Bill Kelsey (L)

District 11

August Pfluger (R-inc)

District 12

Kay Granger (R-inc) vs. Trey Hunt (D)

District 13

Ronny Jackson (R-inc) vs. Kathleen Brown (D)

District 14

Randy Weber (R-inc) vs. Mikal Williams (D)

District 15

Michelle Vallejo (D) vs. Monica de la Cruz (R), Ross Leone (L)

Analysis: Vicente Gonzalez (D) left this district to run in the 34th congressional district. This district has long been Democratic, but Donald Trump (R) almost won it in 2020 and it was made even more Republican in redistricting, with exurbs of San Antonio.

Outlook: Lean de la Cruz (Republican gain)

District 16

Veronica Escobar (D-inc) vs. Irene Armendariz-Jackson (R)

District 17

Pete Sessions (R-inc) vs. Mary Jo Woods (D)

District 18

Sheila Jackson Lee (D-inc) vs. Carmen Maria Montiel (R), Phil Kurtz (L)

District 19

Jodey Arrington (R-inc) vs. Jerry Lewis (I)

District 20

Joaquin Castro (D-inc) vs. Kyle Sinclair (R)

District 21

Chip Roy (R-inc) vs. Claudia Zapata (D)

District 22

Troy Nehls (R-inc) vs. Jamie Kaye Jordan (D)

District 23

Tony Gonzales (R-inc) vs. John Lira (D)

District 24

Beth Van Duyne (R-inc) vs. Jan McDowell (D)

District 25

Roger Williams (R-inc)

District 26

Michael Burgess (R-inc) vs. Mike Kolls (L)

District 27

Michael Cloud (R-inc) vs. Maclovio Perez (D)

District 28

Henry Cuellar (D-inc) vs. Cassy Garcia (R)

Analysis: Cuellar narrowly held off a primary challenge from more progressive Jessica Cisneros. His social conservatism may help him hold on.

Outlook: Lean Cuellar (Democratic hold)

District 29

Sylvia Garcia (D-inc) vs. Robert Schafranek (R)

District 30

Jasmine Crockett (D) vs. James Rodgers (R), Phil Gray (L)

(Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) is retiring.)

District 31

John Carter (R-inc)

District 32

Colin Allred (D-inc) vs. Antonio Swad (R), Kenneth Ashby (L)

District 33

Marc Veasey (D-inc) vs. Patrick Gillespie (R)

District 34

Mayra Flores (R-inc) vs. Vicente Gonzalez (D)

Analysis: Flores won the special in the old 34th after Filemon Vela (D) resigned. The new 34th is slightly more Democratic, and Gonzalez is an incumbent who ran here instead of the more Republican 15th district.

Outlook: Lean Gonzalez (Democratic gain)

District 35

Greg Casar (D) vs. Dan McQueen (R)

(Lloyd Doggett (D) is running in the 37th congressional district.)

District 36

Brian Babin (R-inc) vs. Jon Haire (D)

District 37 (new district)

Lloyd Doggett (D-inc) vs. Jenny Sharon (R), Clark Patterson (L)

District 38 (new district)

Wesley Hunt (R-inc) vs. Duncan Klussmann (D)

State Elections

Governor

Greg Abbott (R-inc) vs. Beto O’Rourke (D)

Outlook: Likely Abbott (R) (Republican hold)

State Legislature

Chamber Control GOP DEM Others
Senate
GOP
18
13
House
GOP
85
65