Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Utah

Flag of Utah
Flag of Utah

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Utah is the 13th most Republican state, voting 11.31% more Republican than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Utah is trending Democratic (16.31% more Democratic than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Utah is R+13.23.

U.S. Senate (Class 1)

Mitt Romney (R) is up for re-election in 2024.

U.S. Senate (Class 3)

Mike Lee (R-inc) vs. Evan McMullin (I), James Hansen (L), Tommy Williams (IA)

Analysis: Instead of fielding their own candidate, Democrats threw their support behind 2016 presidential candidate McMullin. McMullin may be able to win over disaffected Republicans but winning statewide is a very long shot against the popular Lee. The only counties McMullin is likely to win are the three that Joe Biden (who McMullin endorsed) won in 2020: Salt Lake, Summit (Park City), and Grand (Moab/Arches/Canyonlands).

Outlook: Solid Lee (Republican hold)

U.S. House

District 1

Blake Moore (R-inc) vs. Rick Jones (D)

District 2

Chris Stewart (R-inc) vs. Nick Mitchell (D), Cassie Easley (C), Jay McFarland (United Utah)

District 3

John Curtis (R-inc) vs. Glenn Wright (D), Michael Stoddard (L), Daniel Cummings (C), Aaron Heineman (IA)

District 4

Burgess Owens (R-inc) vs. Darlene McDonald (D), January Walker (United Utah)

State Elections

Governor

Spencer Cox (R) is up for re-election in 2024.

State Legislature

Chamber Control GOP DEM Others
Senate
GOP
23
6
House
GOP
58
17