Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Tennessee

Flag of Tennessee
Flag of Tennessee

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Tennessee is the 10th most Republican state, voting 13.84% more Republican than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Tennessee is trending Republican (23.28% more Republican than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Tennessee is R+14.42.

U.S. Senate (Class 1)

Marsha Blackburn (R) is up for re-election in 2024.

U.S. Senate (Class 2)

Bill Hagerty (R) is up for re-election in 2026.

U.S. House

District 1

Diana Harshbarger (R-inc) vs. Cameron Parsons (D), Richard Baker (I), Ahmed Makrom (I)

District 2

Tim Burchett (R-inc) vs. Mark Harmon (D)

District 3

Chuck Fleischmann (R-inc) vs. Meg Gorman (D), Thomas Rumba (I), Rick Tyler (I)

District 4

Scott DesJarlais (R-inc) vs. Russell Steele (D), Clyde Benson (I), Tharon Chandler (I), David Jones (I), Joseph Magyer (I), Mike Winton (I)

District 5

Heidi Campbell (D) vs. Andy Ogles (R), Derrick Brantley (I), Daniel Cooper (I), Rich Shannon (I)

Analysis: Jim Cooper (D) is retiring after legislative Republicans cracked Nashville, making this district dramatically more Republican.

Outlook: Strong Ogles (Republican gain)

District 6

John Rose (R-inc) vs. Randal Cooper (D)

District 7

Mark Green (R-inc) vs. Odessa Kelly (D), Steven J. Hooper (I)

District 8

David Kustoff (R-inc) vs. Lynnette Williams (D), James Hart (I), Ronnie Henley (I)

District 9

Steve Cohen (D-inc) vs. Charlotte Bergmann (R), Dennis Clark (I), Paul Cook (I), George Flinn (I)

State Elections

Governor

Bill Lee (R-inc) vs. Jason Martin (D), Constance Every (I), John Gentry (I), Basil Marceaux (I), Alfred O’Neil (I), Deborah Rouse (I), Michael Scantland (I), Rick Tyler (I), Charles Van Morgan (I)

Outlook: Solid Lee (R) (Republican hold)

State Legislature

Chamber Control GOP DEM Others
Senate
GOP
27
6
House
GOP
73
25
1 I