Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Maryland

Flag of Maryland
Flag of Maryland

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Maryland is the 3rd most Democratic state, voting 14.09% more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Maryland is trending Democratic (12.88% more Democratic than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Maryland is D+13.83.

U.S. Senate (Class 1)

Ben Cardin (D) is up for re-election in 2024.

U.S. Senate (Class 3)

Chris Van Hollen (D-inc) vs. Chris Chaffee (R)

Outlook: Solid Van Hollen (Democratic hold)

U.S. House

District 1

Andy Harris (R-inc) vs. Heather Mizeur (D), Daniel Thibeault (L)

District 2

Dutch Ruppersberger (D-inc) vs. Nicolee Ambrose (R)

District 3

John Sarbanes (D-inc) vs. Yuripzy Morgan (R)

District 4

Glenn Ivey (D) vs. Jeff Warner (R)

(Anthony Brown (D) ran for governor.)

District 5

Steny Hoyer (D-inc) vs. Chris Palombi (R)

District 6

David Trone (D-inc) vs. Neil Parrott (R)

Analysis: This district has a considerable Democratic lean, though the deeply Republican western counties and the national environment could make it closer.

Outlook: Likely Trone (Democratic hold)

District 7

Kweisi Mfume (D-inc) vs. Scott Collier (R)

District 8

Jamie Raskin (D-inc) vs. Gregory Coll (R), Andrés Garcia (L)

State Elections

Governor

Larry Hogan (R) is term-limited.

Dan Cox (R) vs. Wes Moore (D), David Lashar (L), Nancy Wallace (G), David Harding (Working Class), Kyle Sefcik (I)

Analysis: Without a moderate Republican, this race is likely to default back to Maryland’s typical voting patterns.

Outlook: Lean Moore (Democratic gain)

State Legislature

Chamber Control DEM GOP Others
Senate
DEM
32
15
House
DEM
99
42