Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Maine

Flag of Maine

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Maine is the 17th most Democratic state, voting 1.82% more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Maine is steady (0.01% more Democratic than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Maine is D+1.44.

U.S. Senate (Class 1)

Angus King (I) is up for re-election in 2024.

U.S. Senate (Class 2)

Susan Collins (R) is up for re-election in 2026.

U.S. House

District 1

Chellie Pingree (D-inc) vs. Ed Thelander (R)

District 2

Jared Golden (D-inc) vs. Bruce Poliquin (R), Tiffany Bond (I), Jordan Borrowman (I)

Analysis: Being one of the few districts won by Donald Trump and a Democrat in the House race, this Republican-trending district is a top priority for Republicans. Golden has a moderate voting record, but there are no major Democratic centers in this district. The environment is also unlikely to do Golden any favors.

Outlook: Lean Poliquin (Republican gain)

State Elections

Governor

Janet Mills (D-inc) vs. Paul LePage (R), Sam Hunkler

Analysis: Mills has an advantage as an incumbent, but Maine is still only slightly Democratic, and she will face significant headwinds from the national environment.

Outlook: Lean Mills (Democratic hold)

State Legislature

Chamber Control DEM GOP Others
Senate
DEM
22
13
House
DEM
78
63
3 I (1 NV) /
7 vacant (2 NV)