Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Illinois

Flag of Illinois

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Illinois is the 11th most Democratic state, voting 6.27% more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Illinois is steady (1.01% more Democratic than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Illinois is D+7.15.

U.S. Senate (Class 2)

Dick Durbin (D) is up for re-election in 2026.

U.S. Senate (Class 3)

Tammy Duckworth (D-inc) vs. Kathy Salvi (R), William B. Redpath (L)

Outlook: Strong Duckworth (Democratic hold)

U.S. House

District 1

Jonathan Jackson (D) vs. Eric Carlson (R), Babette U. Peyton (I)

(Bobby Rush (D) is retiring.)

District 2

Robin Kelly (D-inc) vs. Thomas Lynch (R)

District 3

Delia Ramirez (D) vs. Justin Burau (R), Joe Evans (I)

District 4

Chuy Garcia (D-inc) vs. James Falakos (R), Edward Hershey (Working Class)

District 5

Mike Quigley (D-inc) vs. Tommy Hanson (R), Jerico Matias Cruz (I)

District 6

Sean Casten (D-inc) vs. Keith Pekau (R)

Analysis: Casten won over Marie Newman in an incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary. Unlike many affluent suburban areas in the country, this district did not trend Democratic as much. Casten has the advantage, but it will be close.

Outlook: Lean Casten (Democratic hold)

District 7

Danny Davis (D-inc)

District 8

Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-inc) vs. Chris Dargis (R)

District 9

Jan Schakowsky (D-inc) vs. Maxwell Rice (R)

District 10

Brad Schneider (D-inc) vs. Joseph Severino (R)

District 11

Bill Foster (D-inc) vs. Catalina Lauf (R)

District 12

Mike Bost (R-inc) vs. Chip Markel (D)

District 13

Nikki Budzinski (D) vs. Regan Deering (R)

Analysis: This is a new seat, created to take in the Democratic-leaning areas in central and southern Illinois. Turnout in these areas tends to drop dramatically in midterms, so this district could go either way.

Outlook: Lean Budzinski (Democratic gain)

District 14

Lauren Underwood (D-inc) vs. Scott Gryder (R)

Analysis: Underwood’s district was made more Democratic, but she could still face a competitive race in a Republican-leaning environment.

Outlook: Likely Underwood (Democratic hold)

District 15

Mary Miller (R-inc) vs. Paul Lange (D)

District 16

Darin LaHood (R-inc) vs. Elizabeth “Lisa” Haderlein (D)

District 17

Eric Sorensen (D) vs. Esther Joy King (R)

Cheri Bustos (D) is retiring. This district voted for Donald Trump in 2016 but was made slightly more Democratic. The environment makes this race one to watch.

Outlook: Lean King (Republican gain)

State Elections

Governor

J.B. Pritzker (D-inc) vs. Darren Bailey (R), Scott Schluter (L), Tommy Belg (I)

Outlook: Strong Pritzker (Democratic hold)

State Legislature

Chamber Control DEM GOP Others
Senate
DEM
41
18
House
DEM
73
45