Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Florida

Flag of Florida
Flag of Florida

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Florida is the 24th most Republican state, voting 4.40% more Republican than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Florida is trending Republican (7.28% more Republican than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Florida is R+2.85.

U.S. Senate (Class 1)

Rick Scott (R) is up for re-election in 2024.

U.S. Senate (Class 3)

Marco Rubio (R-inc) vs. Val Demings (D), Dennis Misigoy (L), Quoc Tran Nguyen (I), Steven B. Grant (I)

Outlook: Likely Rubio (Republican hold)

U.S. House

District 1

Matt Gaetz (R-inc) vs. Rebekah Jones (D)

District 2

Neal Dunn (R-inc) vs. Al Lawson (D-inc)

District 3

Kat Cammack (R-inc) vs. Danielle Hawk (D), Linda Brooks (I)

District 4 (new district)

Aaron Bean (R) vs. LaShonda Holloway (D)

District 5

John Rutherford (R-inc)

District 6

Michael Waltz (R-inc) vs. Joe Hannoush (L)

District 7

Karen Green (D) vs. Cory Mills (R)

(Stephanie Murphy (D) is retiring.)

District 8

Bill Posey (R-inc) vs. Joanne Terry (D)

District 9

Darren Soto (D-inc) vs. Scotty Moore (R), Cody McNutt (L), David Rogers (I)

District 10

Maxwell Frost (D) vs. Calvin Wimbish (R)

(Val Demings (D) is running for U.S. Senate.)

District 11

Daniel Webster (R-inc) vs. Shante Munns (D), Kevin Porter (I)

District 12

Gus Bilirakis (R-inc) vs. Kimberly Walker (D), Cody McNutt (L), David Rogers (I)

District 13

Eric Lynn (D) vs. Anna Paulina Luna (R), Frank Craft (L)

Analysis: Charlie Crist (D) is running for governor. This seat was made considerably more Republican in redistricting.

Outlook: Strong Luna (Republican gain)

District 14

Kathy Castor (D-inc) vs. James Judge (R)

District 15

Laurel Lee (R) vs. Alan Cohn (D)

District 16

Vern Buchanan (R-inc) vs. Jan Schneider (D), Cody McNutt (L), David Rogers (I)

District 17

Greg Steube (R-inc) vs. Andrea Kale (D), Theodore Murray (I)

District 18

Scott Franklin (R-inc) vs. Keith R. Hayden, Jr. (I)

District 19

Byron Donalds (R-inc) vs. Cindy Banyai (D)

District 20

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-inc) vs. Drew Montez Clark (R)

District 21

Brian Mast (R-inc) vs. Corinna Robinson (D)

District 22

Lois Frankel (D-inc) vs. Dan Franzese (R)

District 23

Jared Evan Moskowitz (D) vs. Joe Budd (R), Mark Napier (I), Christine Scott (I)

District 24

Frederica Wilson (D-inc) vs. Jesus Navarro (R)

District 25

Debbie Wasserman Schulz (D-inc) vs. Carla Spalding (R)

District 26

Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc) vs. Christine Olivo (D)

District 27

Maria Elvira Salazar (R-inc) vs. Annette Taddeo (D), Ian Medina (I)

District 28

Carlos Giménez (R-inc) vs. Robert Asencio (D)

State Elections

Governor

Ron DeSantis (R-inc) vs. Charlie Crist (D), Hector Roos (L), Carmen Jackie Gimenez (I), Jodi Gregory Jeloudov (I)

Outlook: Likely DeSantis (Republican hold)

State Legislature

Chamber Control GOP DEM Others
Senate
GOP
23
16
House
GOP
76
42