My party abbreviation guide is here.
Arizona is the 25th most Democratic state, voting 1.91% less Democratic than the nation as a whole.
Based on election data since 2000, Arizona is trending Democratic (2.65% more Democratic than 2000).
The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Arizona is R+2.56.
U.S. Senate (Class 1)
Kyrsten Sinema (D) is up for re-election in 2024.
U.S. Senate (Class 3)
Mark Kelly (D-inc) vs. Blake Masters (R), Marc Victor (L)
Analysis: After John McCain (R) died in August 2018, Jon Kyl (R) was appointed to this seat for a few months before resigning. After losing the election for the other Senate seat to Sinema, Martha McSally (R) was appointed to this seat in early 2019. She would face a special in 2020 to finish McCain’s term, which she lost to Kelly in the newly purple Arizona. Venture capitalist Masters, who was president of the controversial Peter Thiel’s Thiel Foundation, has been endorsed by Donald Trump and Thiel, who had supported attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Incumbency and the slow leftward trend in Arizona favor Kelly, but with a likely Republican-friendly midterm environment, this will come down to the wire.
Outlook: Toss-Up
U.S. House
District 1
David Schweikert (R-inc) vs. Jevin Hodge (D)
Analysis: In spite of ethics scandals over misused funds, Schweikert won in 2020 in the old 6th district with 52% of the vote. The new 1st district is slightly more competitive than the old 6th, but Hodge is a lesser-known candidate than Hiral Tipirneni, who had overperformed in a special election in a Republican district.
Outlook: Lean Schweikert (Republican hold)
District 2
Tom O’Halleran (D-inc) vs. Eli Crane (R)
Analysis: O’Halleran has won with small margins in a slightly Republican district in the last 3 elections. However, this new district has been made more Republican.
Outlook: Lean Crane (Republican gain)
District 3
Ruben Gallego (D-inc) vs. Jeff Zink (R)
District 4
Greg Stanton (D-inc) vs. Kelly Cooper (R)
Analysis: Redistricting added more rural areas to this district, make it considerably less Democratic.
Outlook: Lean Stanton (Democratic hold)
District 5
Andy Biggs (R-inc) vs. Javier Ramos (D)
District 6
Kirsten Engel (D) vs. Juan Ciscomani (R)
Analysis: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is retiring from this district, which was made more Republican with many Democratic parts having been moved into the 7th district.
Outlook: Lean Ciscomani (Republican gain)
District 7
Raul Grijalva (D-inc) vs. Luis Pozzolo (R)
District 8
Debbie Lesko (R-inc) vs. David Bies (D-W/I)
District 9
State Elections
Governor
Doug Ducey (R-inc) is term-limited.
Kari Lake (R) vs. Katie Hobbs (D), Barry Hess (L)
Analysis: This race will likely be very close like the Senate race, with an elected statewide official in Hobbs and TV news anchor Lake.
Outlook: Toss-Up
State Legislature
| Chamber | Control | GOP | DEM | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | ||||
| House |