Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Virginia

Flag of Virginia
Flag of Virginia

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Virginia is the 16th most Democratic state, voting 2.84% more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Virginia is trending Democratic (14.20% more Democratic than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Virginia is D+2.3.

U.S. Senate (Class 1)

Tim Kaine (D) is up for re-election in 2024.

U.S. Senate (Class 2)

Mark Warner (D) is up for re-election in 2026.

U.S. House

District 1

Rob Wittman (R-inc) vs. Herb Jones (D)

District 2

Elaine Luria (D-inc) vs. Jen Kiggans (R), Garry Hubbard (G)

Analysis: Glenn Youngkin (R) won this district by double digits in last year’s governor race, which may make re-election tough for Luria.

Outlook: Toss-Up

District 3

Bobby Scott (D-inc) vs. Terry Namkung (R)

District 4

Donald McEachin (D-inc) vs. Leon Benjamin (R)

District 5

Bob Good (R-inc) vs. Joshua Throneburg (D)

District 6

Ben Cline (R-inc) vs. Jennifer Lewis (D)

District 7

Abigail Spanberger (D-inc) vs. Yesli Vega (R)

Analysis: This Biden-Youngkin district was made slightly more Democratic in redistricting.

Outlook: Lean Spanberger (Democratic hold)

District 8

Don Beyer (D-inc) vs. Karina Lipsman (R)

District 9

Morgan Griffith (R-inc) vs. Taysha DeVaughan (D)

District 10

Jennifer Wexton (D-inc) vs. Hung Cao (R)

District 11

Gerry Connolly (D-inc) vs. Jim Myles (R)

State Elections

Governor

Glenn Youngkin (R) is term-limited in 2025.

State Legislature

Chamber Control DEM GOP Others
Senate
DEM
21
19
House
GOP
48
52