Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Kentucky

Flag of Kentucky
Flag of Kentucky

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Kentucky is the 7th most Republican state, voting 15.27% more Republican than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Kentucky is trending Republican (14.75% more Republican than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Kentucky is R+16.13.

U.S. Senate (Class 2)

Mitch McConnell (R) is up for re-election in 2026.

U.S. Senate (Class 3)

Rand Paul (R-inc) vs. Charles Booker (D)

Outlook: Solid Paul (Republican hold)

U.S. House

District 1

James Comer (R-inc) vs. Jimmy Ausbrooks (D)

District 2

Brett Guthrie (R-inc) vs. Hank Linderman (D)

District 3

Morgan McGarvey (D) vs. Stuart Ray (R)

(John Yarmuth (D) is retiring.)

District 4

Thomas Massie (R-inc) vs. Matthew Lehman (D), Ethan Osborne (I)

District 5

Hal Rogers (R-inc) vs. Conor Halbleib (D)

District 6

Andy Barr (R-inc) vs. Geoff Young (D)

State Elections

Governor

Andy Beshear (D) is up for re-election in 2023.

State Legislature

Chamber Control GOP DEM Others
Senate
GOP
30
8
House
GOP
75
25