Big fan of election and demographic numbers since 2006
 

2022 Election Outlook – Nevada

Flag of Nevada
Flag of Nevada

My party abbreviation guide is here.

Nevada is the 21st most Democratic state, voting 1.21% less Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Based on election data since 2000, Nevada is steady (1.99% more Democratic than 2000).

The current Cook Partisan Voting Index for Nevada is R+0.43.

U.S. Senate (Class 1)

Jacky Rosen (D) is up for re-election in 2024.

U.S. Senate (Class 3)

Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) vs. Adam Laxalt (R), Neil Scott (L), Barry Rubinson (IA), J. J. Destin (I), Gretchen Rae Lowe (I), None of These Candidates

Analysis: Nevada may have a slight Democratic lean, but Laxalt is a former state attorney general, in fact succeeding Cortez Masto in 2014. Turnout among the Democratic base in Nevada also tends to crater in midterms.

Outlook: Toss-Up

U.S. House

District 1

Dina Titus (D-inc) vs. Mark Robertson (R), Ken Cavanaugh (L), Monica Lenoir (I)

Analysis: This is a rather odd district, with working-class Hispanic communities and affluent white communities. The outcome of the race in this district hinges on turnout.

Outlook: Toss-Up

District 2

Mark Amodei (R-inc) vs. Elizabeth Mercedes Krause (D), Darryl Baber (L), Russell Best (IA)

District 3

Susie Lee (D-inc) vs. April Becker (R), Robert Bruce Morris (I)

Analysis: Lee won with 48.8% of the vote last time. This district in the western Las Vegas suburbs trended slightly rightward.

Outlook: Toss-Up

District 4

Steven Horsford (D-inc) vs. Sam Peters (R)

Analysis: This is another odd district, with urban, suburban, and rural voters.

Outlook: Toss-Up

State Elections

Governor

Steve Sisolak (D-inc) vs. Joe Lombardo (R), Brandon Davis (L), Ed Bridges (IA), Bradley Beck (I), Austin Billings (I), Monique Richardson (I), None of These Candidates

Analysis: As the first Democratic governor of Nevada in 20 years, Sisolak faces a tough bid for re-election. He faces the same challenges as Cortez Masto, in addition to facing the sheriff of Clark County, where the majority of Nevada voters live.

Outlook: Toss-Up

State Legislature

Chamber Control DEM GOP Others
Senate
DEM
12
9
House
DEM
26
16