Florida is the 25th most Republican state, voting 3.09% more Republican than the country as a whole.
Based on election data since 2000, Florida is steady.
More information on past presidential, congressional, and state elections can be found on the Florida page.
My party abbreviation guide is here.
President
Once again, Florida is a hotly contested state and understandably so, with the third-biggest electoral prize of 29 electoral votes (tied with noncompetitive New York) and likely to gain further in the 2020 reapportionment. Of the last 6 presidential elections, Democrats and Republicans have each won 3. Republicans have made gains down-ballot, but it remains to be seen if Florida will become redder than the R+1-R+2 it has been for the last 5 elections. At least as of right now it probably will, as Democrats couldn’t win the Senate or Governor seats in the pro-Democratic year of 2018, and as the Democratic-leaning GI generation gives way to the Republican-leaning Silent Generation among retirees.
Outlook: Tilt Trump (29 electoral votes)
Congress
U.S. Senate (Class 1)
Rick Scott (R) is up for re-election in 2024.
U.S. Senate (Class 3)
Marco Rubio (R) is up for re-election in 2022.
U.S. House
Competitive Districts
District 15: Scott Franklin (R) vs. Alan Cohn (D)
In this moderately Republican (R+6) district in the Tampa area, embattled incumbent Ross Spano, who was under investigation for alleged campaign finance violations, lost the primary to Franklin. Navy veteran and State Representative Adam Hattersley, who won Spano’s seat there and was seen as a strong contender to take on Spano, lost to Cohn. With these tickets and the district’s lean, Franklin is favored to win.
Outlook: Lean Franklin (Republican hold)
District 26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-inc) vs. Carlos Gimenez (R)
Mucarsel-Powell won here by 2% in 2018 over Carlos Curbelo, who had won in 2016 as the district went for Hillary Clinton by 16. Without Curbelo this time, Mucarsel-Powell looks to be in a stronger position to win.
Outlook: Lean Mucarsel-Powell (Democratic hold)
Other Districts
District 1: Matt Gaetz (R-inc) vs. Phillip Ehr (D), Albert Oram (I)
District 2: Neal Dunn (R-inc) vs. Kim O’Connor (I), Kristy Thripp (D-W/I)
District 3: Kat Cammack (R) vs. Adam Christensen (D)
District 4: John Rutherford (R-inc) vs. Donna Deegan (D), Gary Koniz (R-W/I)
District 5: Al Lawson (D-inc) vs. Gary Adler (R)
District 6: Michael Waltz (R-inc) vs. Clint Curtis (D), Alan Grayson (D-W/I), John G. Nolan (I-W/I)
District 7: Stephanie Murphy (D-inc) vs. Leonardo Valentin (R), William Garlington (I)
District 8: William Posey (R-inc) vs. James Kennedy (D)
District 9: Darren Soto (D-inc) vs. William Olson (R), Clay Hill (I-W/I)
District 10: Val Demings (D-inc) vs. Vennia Francois (R), Sufiyah Yasmine (D-W/I)
District 11: Dan Webster (R-inc) vs. Dana Cottrell (D)
District 12: Gus Bilirakis (R-inc) vs. Kimberly Walker (D)
District 13: Charlie Crist (D-inc) vs. Anna Luna (R), Jacob Curnow (R-W/I)
District 14: Kathy Castor (D-inc) vs. Christine Quinn (R)
District 16: Vern Buchanan (R-inc) vs. Margaret Good (D)
District 17: Greg Steube (R-inc) vs. Allen Ellison (D), Theodore Murray (I)
District 18: Brian Mast (R-inc) vs. Pamela Keith (D), K.W. Miller (I)
District 19: Byron Donalds (R) vs. Cindy Banyai (D), Patrick Post (D-W/I)
District 20: Alcee Hastings (D-inc) vs. Gregory Musselwhite, Sr. (R)
District 21: Lois Frankel (D-inc) vs. Laura Loomer (R), Charleston Malkemus (I), Piotr Blass (R-W/I), Sylvia Caravetta (I-W/I)
District 22: Ted Deutsch (D-inc) vs. James Pruden (R)
District 23: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-inc) vs. Carla Spalding (R), D.B. Fugate (R-W/I), Jeff Olson (R-W/I)
District 24: Frederica Wilson (D-inc) vs. Lavern Spicer (R), Christine Alexandria Olivo (I), Howard Knepper (R-W/I), Hector Rivera (I-W/I)
District 25: Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc) – unopposed
District 27: Donna Shalala (D-inc) vs. Maria Salazar (R), Frank Polo Sr. (R-W/I)
State Elections
Governor
Ron DeSantis (R) is up for re-election in 2022.
State Legislature
| Chamber | Control | GOP | DEM | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | ||||
| House |