Minnesota is the 20th most Democratic state, voting 1.72% less Democratic than the country as a whole.
Based on election data since 2000, Minnesota is slightly trending Republican.
More information on past presidential, congressional, and state elections can be found on the Minnesota page.
My party abbreviation guide is here.
President
Minnesota was a razor thin Democratic win in 2016 because of sharp right trends outside the cities and leftward trends in the suburbs around Minneapolis-Saint Paul. The trends are expected to continue, though if Democratic gains in the Twin Cities area outweigh Republican gains elsewhere, the Democratic margin will likely widen.
Outlook: Lean Biden (10 electoral votes)
Congress
U.S. Senate (Class 1)
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) is up for re-election in 2024.
U.S. Senate (Class 2)
Tina Smith (DFL-inc) vs. Jason Lewis (R), Paul Beshah (Ind.), Oliver Steinberg (Grassroots – Legalize Cannabis), Kevin O’Connor (Legalize Marijuana Now)
Outlook: Strong Smith (DFL hold)
U.S. House
Competitive Districts
District 1: Jim Hagedorn (R-inc) vs. Dan Feehan (DFL), Hans Gabriel Tinsley (I), Bill Rood (Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis)
After narrowly losing in 2018, Feehan is facing Hagedorn in a rematch in this district with rightward-trending rural areas and meatpacking cities, and Rochester, home to the Mayo Clinic. The latter may hold Hagedorn’s margin down, but he is still likely to win.
Outlook: Lean Hagedorn (Republican hold)
District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL-inc) vs. Michelle Fischbach (R), Rae Hart Anderson (Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis), Slater Johnson (Legal Marijuana Now)
In 2018 Peterson won by 4%, his weakest showing since 1994. His decreased margin in spite of the major gains Democrats made in the House in 2018 and the rapid rightward trend of the district has put it on the board of competitive districts, especially with a strong challenger in Fischbach, former State Senate President and Lieutenant Governor.
Outlook: Tilt Peterson (Democratic-Farmer Labor hold)
Other Districts
District 2: Angie Craig (DFL-inc) vs. Tyler Kistner (R), Adam Weeks (Legal Marijuana Now)
District 3: Dean Phillips (DFL-inc) vs. Kendall Qualls (R)
District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL-inc) vs. Gene Rechtzigel (R), Susan Pendergast Sindt (Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis)
District 5: Ilhan Omar (DFL-inc) vs. Lacy Johnson (R), Michael Moore (Legal Marijuana Now)
District 6: Thomas Emmer (R-inc) vs. Tawnja Zahradka (DFL)
District 8: Peter Stauber (R-inc) vs. Quinn Nystrom (DFL), Judith Schwartzbacker (Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis)
State Elections
Governor
Tim Walz (DFL) is up for re-election in 2022.
State Legislature
| Chamber | Control | GOP | DFL | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | ||||
| House |
1 Four Republicans announced that they would not join the caucus and instead form their own “New House Republican Caucus”. (Source)